March 13 2025

Summary of Pareto Securities' investor seminars at the 20th annual North Atlantic Seafood Forum

On March 4- 6, we hosted the 20th North Atlantic Seafood Forum in Bergen. A record 1,100+ delegates attended the conference, and more than 30 leading seafood companies from all parts of the value chain presented at our investor sessions. 

Sector performance has been mixed so far this year, with political turbulence stealing most headlines lately. That said, many companies remain on track for a significant biological turnaround in 2025, which we believe will boost both earnings and the sentiment moving forward. Longer-term fundamentals also remain sound.

Introduction & panel discussion

Carl-Emil Kjølås Johannessen from our Investment Banking division opened the conference's investor seminar with a look back at the emergence of Norway's seafood sector and the importance of the industry for Norway and Norwegian capital markets.

Following presentations from the largest salmon farmers, including Mowi, SalMar, Lerøy Seafood and Grieg Seafood, we hosted an investor panel discussion together with Torgeir Svae (Kverva AS), industry expert Alf-Helge Aarskog, Jann Molnes (Holberg Fondene) and Ray Dhirani (Marine Stewardship Council (MSC)/Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC)).

Conventional salmon farmers

Better biology across several regions

Most of the large listed conventional salmon farmers presented at our investor seminar. 2024 posed as a challenging year for several of the farmers, especially the Norwegian names. From winter wounds and string-jellyfish during H1 to record-high temperatures and lice pressure in H2, the year ended on a disappointing note.

That said, we see scope for a significant uplift this year. Temperatures are back to historical levels, the new vaccine against winter wounds looks promising and the overall impact from stringjellyfish was modest towards the end of 2024. As such, many factors point towards a significantly better 2025, which corresponds well with our impression after Q4 reporting season.

Growth conditions in Faroe Islands, Chile and the UK also appear to have been good lately. A biological turnaround is coming, which we believe will lift earnings and the sentiment for the sector into 2025. Although better biology and availability of salmon has led to price pressure, realized prices for the farmers should still come up YoY during H1. A falling cost curve through lower feed input prices should also materialize into 2025 - 2026.

Longer-term, we see a strong untapped productivity potential from new technologies, post-smolt, submersible pens and new vaccines, which were all well-covered topics at our conference.

Grieg Seafood, Icelandic Salmon, Lerøy Seafood Group, Mowi, Måsøval and SalMar attended our investor seminar this year.

Pareto Securities Equity Research analyst Sander Lie

Land-based salmon farming

Entering 2025 with more farmers in production

Land-based salmon farmers also had an intriguing 2024, with some players experiencing setbacks due to smolt quality, turbidity or geosmin. Facilities have been upgraded and most of the farmers are back to “production mode”.

2025 might be an inflection point, with several companies ready for first harvest or even closing in on steady state for initial phases. As such, 2025 will mark a year where we get some more datapoints on project economics, crucial for proving the land-based story. Some of the companies are also funded for further expansion and the focus has rather shifted from stretched balance sheets towards production.

With growth limited through licenses for the mature markets, land-based is set to play an increasingly important role moving forward. We got a status update on some of the largest projects globally at our conference and argue for an exciting year ahead.

Attending companies at our investor seminars included: Andfjord Salmon, Atlantic Sapphire, Bue Salmon, First Water, GeoSalmo, Gigante Salmon, Great Northern Salmon, Laxey, Nordic Aqua Partners, Proximar Seafood, Salmon Evolution, Stolt Sea Farm and The Kingfish Company.

Pareto Securities Equity Research analyst Oda Djupvik

Offshore

Projects developing, but game-changing volumes further ahead

Offshore farming is still in an early stage globally, but Salmar Aker Ocean has harvested out some batches since inception. Datapoints so far are supportive for offshore farming to become an important addition to the industry. In Norway, however, political incentives are still not in place following the resource tax.

We argue that these projects will continue to develop, while progress might be faster in other regions. We see a significant growth potential for offshore farming and the projects evolving, but still argue that the game-changing volumes remain further out in time.

Utror attended our conference this year.

Other parts of the value chain also well covered

Apart from salmon farming, the remainder of the value chain was also well covered at the conference. Whitefish has become a large part of the program with Havland, Kime Akva, Norcod, Nordic Halibut and Ode attending this year. Our seminars also featured presentations from AKVA Group, Aker QRILL Company, Austevoll Seafood, FarmInsect, Hofseth BioCare, Innovafeed and Nekkar.

Key takeaways for all 40+ presenting companies

Our equity research analysts have summarized the key takeaways from all 40+ company presentations at our investor seminars. 

Access our research presentations and the takeaways report in our client platform, or reach out to your Pareto Securities representative.

Norwegian podcast

Listen to our analysts Sander Lie and Oda Djupvik together with Sebastian Baartvedt from our equity sales division discuss the conference highlights (in Norwegian) in a podcast episode for Paretopodden: 

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