Summary of Pareto Securities' 14th annual Nordic Corporate Bond Conference

The Nordic High Yield market has kicked off 2025 at a record pace, with issuance volumes reaching EUR 6.5bn so far this year — a threefold increase compared to the same period in 2024. Following a strong rebound last year, we now see EUR >20bn in annual issuance as a likely new normal, with refinancing needs alone expected to support volumes in the EUR ~15bn range.

Over the last years we have seen a clear trend of growing internationalization of the Nordic High Yield market. International issuers made up 56% of primary issues in 2024, and non-Nordic investors accounted for 62% of the total investor base — reflecting the format’s increasing global appeal and relevance with the market growing from EUR 1bn to more than EUR 60bn over the past 25 years.

Investor interest remains high, supported by strong inflows into Nordic bond funds (EUR 5.5bn since 2023), and an increasingly diversified issuer base spanning sectors such as technology, renewables, shipping, and traditional energy.

Several presenting companies shared a cautious near-term view, with potential U.S. trade tariffs and lingering geopolitical uncertainty cited as key concerns. Risk of additional inflationary pressures and further interest rate hikes were also noted as potential headwinds. Overall, companies are addressing this through a disciplined approach to capex projects and leverage levels.

In general, the sentiment was said to gradually improve with many companies expecting positive developments into 2025. Growing order books and increased utilization of underused capacity are expected to drive a recovery in sales and profitability. Stabilized inflation and rates are unlocking investment activity that had previously been delayed, while structural trends such as near-shoring, elevated infrastructure spending, and rising defense budgets are seen as long-term demand drivers, helping offset macro risks and supporting broader economic momentum.