Seafood sector in transition as salmon supply growth slows

Much of this expansion has been driven by the salmon sector. Over the past few years, global salmon supply has grown rapidly, contributing to weaker prices in 2025. But according to Pareto Securities’ seafood analyst Henrik Longva Knutsen, global salmon supply growth is expected to ease to around two percent in 2026.

At the same time, demand continues to grow, supported by a rising middle class in Asia and increasing global demand for healthy protein sources. Lower air freight costs have also made it cheaper to export fresh salmon to Asian markets, making the product more accessible to consumers.

In particular, China has become one of the most important growth markets for salmon, with consumption growing by around 13 percent annually over the past two decades.

By 2030, we estimate that around ten percent of global salmon production could be consumed in China, says Henrik Longva Knutsen.

The whitefish market is also facing tighter supply. Current estimates suggest the cod population has declined by around 20 percent. Lower cod quotas are therefore expected to support higher prices in the coming years.

At the same time, the Institute of Marine Research expects stock levels to improve as stronger year classes reach harvestable size. According to the institute, annual catches of around 300-350 thousand tonnes could represent a sustainable level over time.

One of the most interesting developments in the sector, according to Pareto Securities’ seafood analyst Henrik Longva Knutsen, is that growth is no longer just about increasing volumes. New production technologies, such as laser systems targeting sea lice and submerged pens, are also improving biological performance, leading to lower mortality rates and higher productivity.

Another important development in the sector is the growing role of land-based salmon farming. Early expectations proved too optimistic on both volumes and capex, but production from existing facilities is expected to increase in 2026.

As land-based farming is the most tangible near-term growth opportunity for the sector, experience so far shows that biological performance and how quickly facilities can ramp up production matter more than headline capacity targets.

Learn more about land-based farming through our client case with Salmon Evolution.

Despite improving biological conditions and technological progress, regulation remains an important factor for the seafood industry, according to Henrik Longva Knutsen. In Norway, several salmon farmers are frustrated with the current regulatory direction and are calling for a more flexible framework based on site-specific biological performance.

Chilean producers, on the other hand, appear more positive, as the current government is seen as more supportive of the salmon industry.

Regulatory decisions in Norway and Chile – which together accounted for almost 80 percent of global salmon supply in 2025 – are likely to play a key role in shaping future production growth.