Mining sector is one of the strongest-performing sectors right now.
Anders Roslund, equity analyst at Pareto Securities
May 29 2026
The mining sector: metal prices up and CapEx rising
With gold and copper prices near record levels and mining CapEx accelerating faster than expected, the outlook for the mining equipment sector continues to strengthen. Pareto Securities' equity analysts Forbes Goldman and Anders Roslund break down what it means for investors.
Gold and copper lead the way
After several years of strong performance, momentum in the mining sector continues to build. This has been driven by rising metal prices, increasing investment activity and long-term structural growth trends tied to electrification and the energy transition.
"Electrification and rapidly rising energy demand continue to drive metal prices. With gold prices reflecting financial uncertainty, the mining sector is one of the strongest-performing sectors right now," said Anders Roslund at Pareto Securities' Steel & Mining Equipment Seminar in Stockholm on 28 May.
Over the last two years gold and copper prices have risen significantly. Together they account for 55-65% of commodity exposure at Sandvik Mining, Epiroc Equipment & Services and Metso Minerals.
From metal prices to mining orders
The relationship between metal prices and mining equipment orders is well-established. Commodity-weighted mineral indices for both Epiroc and Sandvik show a consistent correlation with order intake going back to 2018.
Both Epiroc and Sandvik grew orders by more than 20% in Q1 2026, and the trend looks set to continue.
Order intake at Epiroc and Sandvik vs. commodity-weighted mineral indices, y/y organic growth, Q1 2018–Q2 2026E.
Capex accelerating faster than expected
At the same time, mining CapEx growth is accelerating faster than expected. The latest data points to approximately 12% growth in 2026, which is more than five percentage points higher than estimates from just two to three months ago. And by 2030, mining CapEx is expected to have grown by 50%.
Mining CapEx for 62 companies, USDm, with median growth, 2007–2028E.
The investor case
The mining sector is in the middle of an investment cycle that analysts believe will last for a long time, supported by both high metal prices and governments in Europe and North America seeking to secure critical supply chains through projects at home.
"Many companies have an old equipment fleet that needs replacing, while new technology is being introduced to the market. When mining companies generate strong cash flows, investment activity tends to follow," said Forbes Goldman.
For investors, the combination of rising metal prices, accelerating CapEx and structural demand growth creates a supportive backdrop for the sector's leading OEMs – particularly companies with strong aftermarket exposure and proven technology platforms.
When mining companies generate strong cash flows, investment activity tends to follow.
Forbes Goldman, equity analyst at Pareto Securities
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